Longtime adversaries Ethiopia and Eritrea could be on the brink of war, officials in Ethiopia’s restive Tigray region have warned, raising the specter of another humanitarian crisis in the Horn of Africa.
A direct clash between two of the continent’s largest
armies would not only shatter a historic peace deal brokered by Ethiopian Prime
Minister Abiy Ahmed—for which he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019; but
could also draw in other regional powers, analysts say.
Such a conflict would further
destabilize a region already grappling with aid cuts and internal conflicts in
Sudan, Somalia, and Ethiopia, complicating efforts to assist millions of
displaced and vulnerable people.
"At any moment, war
between Ethiopia and Eritrea could break out," General Tsadkan
Gebretensae, a vice president in Tigray’s interim administration, wrote in the
Africa-focused magazine The Africa Report on Monday. His
warning underscores the fragile state of relations between the two nations,
which have been tense since the end of a brutal civil war in Tigray that lasted
from 2020 to 2022 and claimed hundreds of thousands of lives.
The current tensions are tied
to a split within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the region’s
dominant political force. Last year, the TPLF fractured into two factions: one
that now governs Tigray with the support of Ethiopia’s federal government and
another that opposes it. On Tuesday, the dissident faction seized control of
the northern town of Adigrat. General Tsadkan accused the group of seeking an
alliance with Eritrea, a claim the faction denies.
Getachew Reda, the head of
Tigray’s interim administration, has called on Ethiopia’s federal government
for support against the dissidents. "There is clear antagonism between
Ethiopia and Eritrea," Getachew said at a news conference on Monday.
"What concerns me is that the Tigray people may once again become victims
of a war they don’t believe in."
Ethiopia’s federal government
has not publicly commented on the escalating tensions. Eritrea’s information
minister, Yemane Gebremeskel, dismissed General Tsadkan’s warnings as
"war-mongering psychosis." However, reports suggest that both nations
are preparing for potential conflict. In mid-February, Eritrea ordered a
nationwide military mobilization, according to the UK-based group Human Rights
Concern - Eritrea. Meanwhile, Ethiopia has reportedly deployed troops toward
the Eritrean border this month, according to two diplomatic sources and two
Tigrayan officials who spoke to Reuters on the condition of anonymity.
The prospect of renewed
hostilities has alarmed regional experts. Payton Knopf and Alexander Rondos,
former U.S. and European Union envoys to the region, warned that the situation
in Tigray is highly volatile. "The deterioration of the political and
security situation in Tigray is dry tinder waiting for a match," they
wrote in an essay for Foreign Policy on Wednesday.
The potential for conflict
between Ethiopia and Eritrea threatens to undo years of diplomatic efforts and
plunge the region into further chaos, with devastating consequences for
civilians already suffering from years of war and instability.
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